Influencing factors of vehicle damage degree in vehicle-vehicle collision accident at intersection

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8484.2023.01.003

Abstract

Abstract:

The factors affecting the vehicle to vehicle severity accidents at urban intersections were analyzed by taking the 528 cases of the accidents data selected from the (China) National Automobile Accident In-depth Investigation System (NAIS) as the samples with analyzing time period distribution and the vehicle loss distribution. A bivariate ordered Probit model were established by taking the severity of the casualty and vehicle loss as the dependent variables. The results show that the human factors, the vehicle type, the collision location, the street light and the signal status affect the accident severity significantly; speeding increase the death probability by 15.49%, drunk driving increase the vehicle scrapping probability by 5.92%; No traffic lights escalates the accident severity; collision location affects the vehicle damage severity significantly; and the left side collision causes significant vehicle local deformation is 2.92% higher than the right side. Therefore, considering the vehicle damage state may provide a new perspective for accident factor analysis.

Key words: traffic safety, intersection, accident severity, vehicle-vehicle accident, bivariate ordered Probit model

CLC Number:

U491.31

XIAO Le, ZHOU Hua, WANG Chaojian, LIU Xin. Influencing factors of vehicle damage degree in vehicle-vehicle collision accident at intersection[J]. Journal of Automotive Safety and Energy, 2023, 14(1): 23-30.

Figures/Tables 12

References 17

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	事故	状态变量	取值	比例/%
Y₁	人员伤亡	轻伤	1	10.04
		重伤	2	42.99
		死亡	3	46.97
Y₂	车辆损坏	无损失	1	1.89
		轻微刮擦	2	18.18
		轻微变形	3	24.43
		局部明显变形	4	42.23
		大面积严重变形	5	10.42
		报废	6	2.84

	事故	状态变量	取值	比例/%
Y₁	人员伤亡	轻伤	1	10.04
		重伤	2	42.99
		死亡	3	46.97
Y₂	车辆损坏	无损失	1	1.89
		轻微刮擦	2	18.18
		轻微变形	3	24.43
		局部明显变形	4	42.23
		大面积严重变形	5	10.42
		报废	6	2.84

变量编码	变量名称	变量取值
变量编码	变量名称	0	1	2	3	4
X₁	路段信息		三枝路口	四枝路口
X₂	天气		晴	阴	雨	雪雾
X₃	事故发生时段		日间	夜间	晨昏
X₄	性别	女	男
X₅	信号灯状态	无	有
X₆	路灯状态	无	有
X₇	路表潮湿度	湿	干
X₈	对向机动车道隔离形式	无	有
X₉	超速驾驶	否	是
X₁₀	酒后驾驶	否	是
X₁₁	未按规定让行	否	是
X₁₂	车辆类型		非机动二三轮车	机动二三轮	乘用车
X₁₃	正面碰撞	否	是
X₁₄	右侧面碰撞	否	是
X₁₅	左侧面碰撞	否	是

变量编码	变量名称	变量取值
变量编码	变量名称	0	1	2	3	4
X₁	路段信息		三枝路口	四枝路口
X₂	天气		晴	阴	雨	雪雾
X₃	事故发生时段		日间	夜间	晨昏
X₄	性别	女	男
X₅	信号灯状态	无	有
X₆	路灯状态	无	有
X₇	路表潮湿度	湿	干
X₈	对向机动车道隔离形式	无	有
X₉	超速驾驶	否	是
X₁₀	酒后驾驶	否	是
X₁₁	未按规定让行	否	是
X₁₂	车辆类型		非机动二三轮车	机动二三轮	乘用车
X₁₃	正面碰撞	否	是
X₁₄	右侧面碰撞	否	是
X₁₅	左侧面碰撞	否	是

变量	双变量有序Probit模型 (伤亡状态)		双变量有序Probit模型 (车辆损坏状态)
变量	系数	标准差	系数	标准差
路段信息	-0.024	0.119	0.146	0.106
天气	-0.036	0.087	0.012	0.079
事故发生时段	0.134	0.090	0.155**	0.078
性别	0.082	0.139	-0.409***	0.123
信号灯状态	-0.213*	0.124	-0.203*	0.112
路灯状态	-0.403***	0.143	0.256**	0.127
路表潮湿度	-0.051	0.195	0.128	0.177
对向机动车道隔离形式	0.067	0.169	0.202	0.149
超速驾驶	0.449***	0.165	0.177	0.143
酒后驾驶	-0.051	0.284	1.104***	0.272
未按规定让行	0.258**	0.129	0.047	0.113
车辆类型	-0.784***	0.092	0.106*	0.062
正面碰撞	0.091	0.166	0.438***	0.144
右侧面碰撞	0.238	0.183	0.389**	0.161
左侧面碰撞	0.125	0.215	0.507***	0.194