Prediction of automobile claims and warranty costs method based on two-dimensional warranty data

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8484.2023.03.006

Abstract

Abstract:

A claim ratio calculation method based on the correction of in-warranty ratio was proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of automobile claim ratio and accurately predict the warranty cost of automobile enterprises in the future period, considering the censoring characteristics of two-dimensional warranty data and the over-warranty situation of automobile products. A prediction method of the warranty cost based on the claim ratio and repair-replacement rate was proposed due to the difference of the warranty cost under the two modes of parts repair and replacement. The warranty cost of the automobile enterprise in the next quarter was predicted, combining with the actual two-dimensional warranty data of a certain brand of automobile. The results show that the relative error between the predicted warranty cost and the actual warranty cost is within 6.5%. Compared with the method that does not consider the in-warranty ratio of automobile, the prediction accuracy of the proposed warranty cost prediction method is improved by more than 4.5%, which can provide support for warranty strategies formulation, product pricing and warranty reserve planning of automobile enterprises.

Key words: automobile warranty, two-dimensional warrantydata, claim ratio, warranty costs

CLC Number:

TH17
TB114.3

PANG Huan, SHI Dongyang, GONG Zheng, LIU Jingyi. Prediction of automobile claims and warranty costs method based on two-dimensional warranty data[J]. Journal of Automotive Safety and Energy, 2023, 14(3): 310-318.

Figures/Tables 12

References 29

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行驶时间 t / 月	总车辆数 N / 辆	在保概率 P	修正后车辆数 N×P
1	N₁	P₁	N₁×P₁
2	N₂	P₂	N₂×P₂
…	…	…	…
n	N_n	P_n	N_n×P_n

行驶时间 t / 月	总车辆数 N / 辆	在保概率 P	修正后车辆数 N×P
1	N₁	P₁	N₁×P₁
2	N₂	P₂	N₂×P₂
…	…	…	…
n	N_n	P_n	N_n×P_n

月区间	索赔数	月区间	索赔数
0~1	6	13~14	54
1~2	12	14~15	50
2~3	26	15~16	58
3~4	24	16~17	43
4~5	36	17~18	40
5~6	40	18~19	50
6~7	63	19~20	35
7~8	48	20~21	2
8~9	70	21~22	25
9~10	54	22~23	15
10~11	78	23~24	8
11~12	62	24~25	1
12~13	77	-	-

月区间	索赔数	月区间	索赔数
0~1	6	13~14	54
1~2	12	14~15	50
2~3	26	15~16	58
3~4	24	16~17	43
4~5	36	17~18	40
5~6	40	18~19	50
6~7	63	19~20	35
7~8	48	20~21	2
8~9	70	21~22	25
9~10	54	22~23	15
10~11	78	23~24	8
11~12	62	24~25	1
12~13	77	-	-

索赔件名称	预测时段	实际值/元	不考虑在保率的方法			考虑在保率的方法
索赔件名称	预测时段	实际值/元	预测值/元	误差/ %	总误差/ %	预测值/元	误差/ %	总误差/ %
制动盘	2020/07	17 457.26	18 774.85	7.55	5.23	17 957.81	2.87	0.08
	2022/08	18 101.65	19 968.34	10.31		18 984.17	4.88
	2022/09	22 459.45	22 311.21	-0.66		21 121.61	-5.96
悬架后上横臂	2022/07	18 101.65	19 322.90	6.75	11.02	18 677.98	3.18
	2022/08	16 909.20	18 469.59	9.23		17 678.79	4.55	6.21
	2022/09	14 598.45	17 281.74	18.38		16 334.99	11.90