Abstract:

The situation of energy consumption and environmental emissions of CO2, CO, CH4, N2O, NOX,
and SO2 was analyzed for the base year 2012 and extrapolated till 2030 for the future predictions within the
framework of the existing urban transport planning and policy in Beijing. Using a computer software called Long-
Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model, USA, established four scenarios of the "Business
As Usual (BAU)", the "Public Transport", the "New Energy Vehicle", and the "Public transport and New energy
vehicle" (P&N). The results of scenario analysis show that with respect to energy saving, the public transport
scenario conducts better than the new energy vehicles scenario, however, the new energy vehicle scenario
performs better than the public transport scenario with respect to the reduction of SO2 emission. Scenario 4
will success to save 45.20% of energy consumption by 2030 compare to BAU, and only emission 47.05% of the
emissions in 2012, so, it has an excellent potential of environmental emissions reduction, especially for SO2 emission.

Key words: urban passenger transport, energy consumption, environmental emissions, scenario analysis, Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model