中国氢燃料电池重型卡车的总拥有成本分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8484.2023.06.013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为计算氢燃料电池重型卡车与电动化路线的成本，建立了包含氢能供应链成本分析模块的中国氢燃料电池重型卡车总拥有成本分析模型。从氢能供应链到重型卡车运行的全流程制、储、运、加注及车辆使用各环节，选择了化石能源制氢、风电光伏制氢、工业副产氢、核能制氢等制氢技术，长管拖车运氢、管道运氢2类运氢技术为研究对象。结果表明：城内运输-半挂车、城间运输-半挂车、矿山/港口货运-自卸车3类氢燃料电池重型卡车目前的总拥有成本为200~357万元人民币，该值比柴油重型卡车多38.4%~74.3%；氢燃料电池重型卡车在矿山货运、港口货运等场景的经济成本表现相对占优，具有优先推广的潜力。在不考虑政府补贴的情况下，在城间货运、矿山货运、港口货运等场景下的氢燃料电池重卡都需要在2027—2028年以后达到与柴油重型卡车平价，即与类似车型的总拥有成本相接近。根据现有的政府补贴政策，在上述各类场景下，中国的氢燃料电池重型卡车与传统汽车达到平价的时间，有望提前到2025年之前。

关键词: 纯电动卡车, 氢燃料电池重型卡车, 氢能供应链, 总拥有成本, 中国

Abstract:

A quantitative analysis model was established for the total cost of ownership measurement of hydrogen-fuel-cell heavy-trucks in the Chinese context based on the cost modeling of the Chinese hydrogen supply chain. The investigate object was selected as that the fossil energy-based hydrogen, the wind power / photovoltaic hydrogen production, the industrial by-production of hydrogen, the nuclear energy-based hydrogen and the other production technologies, from the hydrogen energy supply chain to the heavy-duty truck operation of the whole process of production, storage, transportation, refueling and vehicle use of each link; and included with 2 types of hydrogen transportation technologies (with tube-trailers and with pipelines). The results show that the current total cost of ownership is ranges from 2.00~3.57 million yuan (RMB), which is 38.4% to 74.3% higher than that of diesel heavy-duty trucks, for 3 types of hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks, namely the intra-city transportation -trailers, the inter-city transportation-trailers, and the mine/port freight transportation-dump trucks; The hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks have a relatively superior economic cost performance in scenarios of mine/port freight transportation, with having a preferred promotion potential; The hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks will need to reach parity with diesel heavy-duty trucks, i.e., close to the total cost of ownership of similar models, after 2027—2028, without considering government subsidies, in the scenarios of inter-city freight transportation, mine/port freight transportation; China's hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks are expected to reach parity with conventional vehicles earlier than 2025, under the above scenarios, based on the existing government subsidy policies.

Key words: pure electric trucks, hydrogen-fuel-cell heavy trucks, hydrogen supply chain, total ownership cost, China

中图分类号:

TM912.9

王明华, 王雯, 陈泽宇, 刘建喆, 欧训民, 任磊. 中国氢燃料电池重型卡车的总拥有成本分析[J]. 汽车安全与节能学报, 2023, 14(6): 762-773.

WANG Minghua, WANG Wen, CHEN Zeyu, LIU Jianzhe, OU Xunmin, REN Lei. Total ownership cost analysis of hydrogen-fuel-cell heavy-trucks in China[J]. Journal of Automotive Safety and Energy, 2023, 14(6): 762-773.

图/表 25

参考文献 35

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代号	燃油经济性 / (MJ·km^-1)
代号	汽油或柴油	氢气	电力
乘用车：A0级	2.7	1.1	0.8
客车：10.5 m级	12.1	10.2	4.3
重卡：城内运输-半挂车	14.8	8.2	8.9
重卡：矿山/港口运输-自卸车	11.4	7.8	6.8
重卡：城间运输-半挂车	14.0	7.8	8.4

代号	燃油经济性 / (MJ·km^-1)
代号	汽油或柴油	氢气	电力
乘用车：A0级	2.7	1.1	0.8
客车：10.5 m级	12.1	10.2	4.3
重卡：城内运输-半挂车	14.8	8.2	8.9
重卡：矿山/港口运输-自卸车	11.4	7.8	6.8
重卡：城间运输-半挂车	14.0	7.8	8.4

	氢燃料电池车	纯电动车	柴油车
基本参数
总质量 / t	49.0	49.0	49.0
整备质量 / t	11.10	10.65	8.20
燃料价格	*	1.5元/ kWh	6.5元/L
购置阶段
车辆成本 / 万元	170.0	76.0	39.0
国补 / 万元	-54.6	-4.0	0.0
市补 / 万元	-54.6	-0.0	0.0
购置税 / 万元	0.0	0.0	3.45
购置成本 / 万元	60.8	72.0	42.45
运营阶段
100 km消耗量	10.0 kg	189.7 kWh	32.5 L
每年燃料消耗	6.5 t	189.7 MWh	32.5 m³
每年尿素消耗费用	—	—	11.38万元
每年保养费用/ 万元	2.68	0.50	0.62
每年车辆保险/ 万元	5.00	3.50	3.00

	氢燃料电池车	纯电动车	柴油车
基本参数
总质量 / t	49.0	49.0	49.0
整备质量 / t	11.10	10.65	8.20
燃料价格	*	1.5元/ kWh	6.5元/L
购置阶段
车辆成本 / 万元	170.0	76.0	39.0
国补 / 万元	-54.6	-4.0	0.0
市补 / 万元	-54.6	-0.0	0.0
购置税 / 万元	0.0	0.0	3.45
购置成本 / 万元	60.8	72.0	42.45
运营阶段
100 km消耗量	10.0 kg	189.7 kWh	32.5 L
每年燃料消耗	6.5 t	189.7 MWh	32.5 m³
每年尿素消耗费用	—	—	11.38万元
每年保养费用/ 万元	2.68	0.50	0.62
每年车辆保险/ 万元	5.00	3.50	3.00

各类车辆	FCV储氢质量 / kg	BEV储电量/ kWh		功率 / kW
各类车辆	FCV储氢质量 / kg	BEV储电量/ kWh	电动机	动力电池	燃料电池
城内运输-半挂车	25.3	616.2	186	33.4	246.2
矿山/港口运输-自卸车	63.7	932.5	349	25.7	189.7
城间运输-半挂车	56.6	1 831.4	250	31.8	233.9