Core risk factors of major guardrail-type traffic accidents based on an integrated DEMATEL/ISM

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8484.2023.02.003

Abstract

Abstract:

A core risk factor system of major guardrail-type traffic accidents (MGTA) was constructed by using deeply data mining (DM) to investigated the formation causes of the MGTA, according to the characteristics of five types of accidents: men, vehicles, roads, environments and managements. The key core risk factors and their causal relationships, action paths and hierarchical structures were determined based on the integrated analysis of the DEMATEL (decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory) method and the Interpretive Structural Model (ISM). The results show that the MGTA formation is the result of the coupling between the risk factors; and the driver factors and management factors are the important source of accident prevention. Weak security awareness, driving against road rules, improper operation, speeding, driver supervision omissions and vehicle supervision omissions are the key core risk factors affecting the accident formation, among them, driver supervision omission and vehicle supervision omission are the key root causes, which have high driving force.

Key words: road traffic safety, traffic accidents, major guardrail-type traffic accidents (MGTA), risk factors, decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method, interpretative structural model (ISM)

CLC Number:

U491.3

CHENG Yufeng, ZOU Tiefang, LI Pingfan. Core risk factors of major guardrail-type traffic accidents based on an integrated DEMATEL/ISM[J]. Journal of Automotive Safety and Energy, 2023, 14(2): 165-172.

Figures/Tables 6

References 24

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因素	r₁	r₂	r₃	r₄	r₅	r₆	r₇	r₈	r₁₁	r₁₂	r₁₃	r₁₅	r₁₆	r₁₇	r₁₈
r₁	0	2	3	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
r₂	3	0	3	0	1	3	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
r₃	3	3	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	1
r₄	3	1	2	0	1	3	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	2
r₅	4	3	3	1	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0
r₆	3	4	4	4	3	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
r₇	3	2	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
r₈	4	1	3	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0
r₉	3	3	2	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
r₁₀	3	2	2	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
r₁₁	3	2	2	0	0	1	3	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
r₁₂	2	3	3	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
r₁₃	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
r₁₄	3	2	2	1	1	2	3	2	4	0	0	0	3	2	1
r₁₅	3	3	3	2	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	2
r₁₆	3	4	4	4	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	3
r₁₇	2	4	3	4	2	3	4	4	0	0	0	1	1	0	2
r₁₈	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0

因素	r₁	r₂	r₃	r₄	r₅	r₆	r₇	r₈	r₁₁	r₁₂	r₁₃	r₁₅	r₁₆	r₁₇	r₁₈
r₁	0	2	3	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
r₂	3	0	3	0	1	3	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
r₃	3	3	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	1
r₄	3	1	2	0	1	3	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	2
r₅	4	3	3	1	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0
r₆	3	4	4	4	3	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
r₇	3	2	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
r₈	4	1	3	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0
r₉	3	3	2	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
r₁₀	3	2	2	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
r₁₁	3	2	2	0	0	1	3	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
r₁₂	2	3	3	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
r₁₃	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
r₁₄	3	2	2	1	1	2	3	2	4	0	0	0	3	2	1
r₁₅	3	3	3	2	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	2
r₁₆	3	4	4	4	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	3
r₁₇	2	4	3	4	2	3	4	4	0	0	0	1	1	0	2
r₁₈	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0

因素	影响度， f_i	被影响度， e_i	中心度， m_i	原因度， n_i	按中心度排序
r₁	0.776	2.989	3.765	-2.213	3
r₂	1.146	2.596	3.743	-1.450	4
r₃	1.185	2.914	4.099	-1.730	2
r₄	1.288	1.422	2.710	-0.134	7
r₅	1.266	1.367	2.633	-0.100	8
r₆	1.800	2.352	4.152	-0.552	1
r₇	0.710	1.910	2.620	-1.200	9
r₈	1.012	1.567	2.579	-0.556	10
r₉	0.920	0.000	0.920	0.920	16
r₁₀	0.734	0.000	0.734	0.734	17
r₁₁	0.887	0.121	1.008	0.766	15
r₁₂	1.002	0.139	1.141	0.864	14
r₁₃	0.331	0.172	0.503	0.158	18
r₁₄	1.746	0.000	1.746	1.746	12
r₁₅	1.777	0.200	1.977	1.577	11
r₁₆	2.172	1.287	3.459	0.886	5
r₁₇	1.949	1.018	2.967	0.931	6
r₁₈	0.355	1.003	1.359	-0.648	13

因素	影响度， f_i	被影响度， e_i	中心度， m_i	原因度， n_i	按中心度排序
r₁	0.776	2.989	3.765	-2.213	3
r₂	1.146	2.596	3.743	-1.450	4
r₃	1.185	2.914	4.099	-1.730	2
r₄	1.288	1.422	2.710	-0.134	7
r₅	1.266	1.367	2.633	-0.100	8
r₆	1.800	2.352	4.152	-0.552	1
r₇	0.710	1.910	2.620	-1.200	9
r₈	1.012	1.567	2.579	-0.556	10
r₉	0.920	0.000	0.920	0.920	16
r₁₀	0.734	0.000	0.734	0.734	17
r₁₁	0.887	0.121	1.008	0.766	15
r₁₂	1.002	0.139	1.141	0.864	14
r₁₃	0.331	0.172	0.503	0.158	18
r₁₄	1.746	0.000	1.746	1.746	12
r₁₅	1.777	0.200	1.977	1.577	11
r₁₆	2.172	1.287	3.459	0.886	5
r₁₇	1.949	1.018	2.967	0.931	6
r₁₈	0.355	1.003	1.359	-0.648	13