智能电动浪潮下的汽车产业格局重塑

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8484.2023.06.001

汽车安全与节能学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (6): 651-663.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-8484.2023.06.001

• 综述与展望 • 下一篇

智能电动浪潮下的汽车产业格局重塑

许英博(), 李景涛, 高飞翔, 武平乐, 李铮

中信证券研究部，北京 100026，中国

收稿日期:2023-11-28 修回日期:2023-11-30 出版日期:2023-12-31 发布日期:2023-12-29
作者简介:许英博（1983—），女（汉），山东，证券分析师。E-mail：techresearch@citics.com。
许英博女士，许英博担任中信证券研究部董事总经理，首席科技产业分析师。毕业于清华大学汽车工程系，2007年加入中信证券研究部，任汽车行业分析师。2016年创立中信证券前瞻研究团队，在中国证券市场上率先以跨行业的全球前沿科技为主要研究对象，开展全球科技比较研究。前瞻研究团队研究领域覆盖智能汽车和自动驾驶、云计算和人工智能、互联网和元宇宙等。
Mrs. XU Yingbo, She is the Managing Director of China International Trust and Investment Corporation (CITIC) Securities Research Department, the chief technology industry analyst. She graduated from Department of Automotive Engineering, Tsinghua University and joined Research Department of CITIC Securities in 2007 as an automotive industry analyst. She founded the innovative technology research team in 2016, which was the first in the Chinese securities market to focus on cross-industry global cutting-edge technologies as its main research objects and conducted comparative research on global technology. Its research areas cover smart cars and autonomous driving, cloud computing and artificial intelligence, the Internet and the Metaverse, etc.

Reshaping of automotive industry pattern under the wave of electrification and intelligence

XU Yingbo(), LI Jingtao, GAO Feixiang, WU Pingyue, LI Zheng

Research Department of CITIC Securities, Beijing 100026, China

Received:2023-11-28 Revised:2023-11-30 Online:2023-12-31 Published:2023-12-29

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

汽车产业正经历智能电动浪潮，产品定义和产业格局正在被重塑。2023年1—11月，中国新能源汽车销量达830万辆，同比增长37%，新能源汽车渗透率达31%。特斯拉引领汽车技术变革和产业演进趋势，2022年，特斯拉销售整车131万辆，虽然较丰田（约1 048万辆）等厂商仍有较大差距，但其市值已突破7 000亿美元，居全球车企首位，体现出投资者对其发展的乐观态度。复盘特斯拉发展历程，笔者分析其成功的3点主要原因为：全栈技术自主研发；第一性原理定义产品；持续降成本推动销量增长。造车新势力和科技公司积极跟进，传统车企加速转型。2022年，本土品牌占中国新能源汽车市场份额约80%。未来，中国和全球新能源汽车渗透率将持续提升。智能电动浪潮下，汽车产业格局将持续变化。具备全栈自主研发能力、产品定义和重构能力、产业链协调能力的公司有望持续获得更多市场份额。

关键词: 新能源汽车, 特斯拉, 智能化, 自主品牌, 海外市场

Abstract:

The global automotive industry is experiencing a wave of electrification and intelligence. The automotive product definition and industrial pattern are being reshaped. China’s new energy vehicle sales reached 8.3 million units from January to November 2023, a year-on-year increase of 37%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 31%. Tesla leads the technological transformation and evolution trend of the global automotive industry. In 2022, Tesla sold 1.31 million vehicles, which is still far behind Toyota (about 10.48 million vehicles) and other manufacturers. However, its market value has exceeded US$700 billion, ranking first among global automakers, reflecting investors' optimism about its long-term development. Reviewing Tesla's development history, the author concludes that its success is mainly based on three reasons: self-developed full-stack technology; defining products based on first principle; and continuous cost reduction driving sales growth. New entrants and technology companies are actively following up, and traditional companies are accelerating their transformation. In 2022, local brands already accounted for 80% of China's new energy vehicle market. In the future, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China and the world will continue to increase. Under the wave of electrification and intelligence, the pattern of the automotive industry will continue to change. Companies with full-stack self-developed capabilities, product definition and reconstruction capabilities, and industry chain coordination capabilities are expected to gain higher market share.

Key words: new energy vehicle, Tesla, intelligence, independent brand, overseas market

中图分类号:

U469.7

许英博, 李景涛, 高飞翔, 武平乐, 李铮. 智能电动浪潮下的汽车产业格局重塑[J]. 汽车安全与节能学报, 2023, 14(6): 651-663.

XU Yingbo, LI Jingtao, GAO Feixiang, WU Pingyue, LI Zheng. Reshaping of automotive industry pattern under the wave of electrification and intelligence[J]. Journal of Automotive Safety and Energy, 2023, 14(6): 651-663.

图/表 18

图1 2005―2022年中国及全球市场的年度汽车销量

图2 2004―2022年全球主要汽车集团的年度销量

图3 中国及全球新能源汽车市场规模的发展情况

图4 2017―2025年全球新能源汽车的销量及预测

图5 特斯拉及全球主要汽车制造集团的市值变化情况

代码	公司	市值亿美元	收入预测亿美元	利润预测亿美元	市销率PS	市盈率PE
TSLA.O	特斯拉	7 112	971	80	7.3	88.5
1211.HK	比亚迪	940	834	43	1.1	22.1
LI.O	理想	404	166	11	2.4	37.6
NIO.N	蔚来	124	88	-20	1.4	—
XPEV.N	小鹏	140	50	-16	2.8	—
TM.N	丰田	3 054	2 845	245	1.1	12.5
VOW.DF	大众	369	3 265	167	0.1	2.2
F.N	福特	393	1 638	66	0.2	6.0
GM.N	通用	368	1 699	98	0.2	3.7

表1 2023年全球主要车企市值和估值情况

图6 2010年以来特斯拉的年销量和重点车型交付时间

图7 2013—2022年特斯拉的研发投入

	计算硬件		AI软件
	训练计算机	自动驾驶计算机	神经网络	数据标注	模拟
传统车企	外包	外包	垂直整合	外包	外包
Waymo	垂直整合	垂直整合	垂直整合	垂直整合	垂直整合
Tesla 2018	外包	外包	垂直整合	外包	—
Tesla 2021	垂直整合	垂直整合	垂直整合	垂直整合	垂直整合

表2 特斯拉、Waymo和传统车企的智能驾驶布局对比

图8 特斯拉的净利润和毛利率表现

图9 特斯拉的盈利能力优于传统豪华车企

图10 中国和德国的电动车补贴对比

图11 2022年中国新能源汽车市场的各品牌份额

图12 造车新势力年度销量的增长情况

类型	质量能量密度 (Wh·kg^-1)	体积能量密度 (Wh·L^-1)
普通LFP电池包	80~100	180~230
NCM523电池包	110~150	250~380
NCM811电池包	170~180	410~440
比亚迪刀片电池包	140~150	439~450
宁德时代CTP NCM电池包	≥ 250	≥450
宁德时代CTP LPF电池包	≥160	≥ 290

表3 宁德时代CTP电池和比亚迪刀片电池的能量密度

图13 快充、换电、增程/混动等补能方式

图14 特斯拉、蔚小理、华为的自动驾驶功能投放时间线

图15 2010―2022年中国乘用车出口销量情况

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智能电动浪潮下的汽车产业格局重塑

Reshaping of automotive industry pattern under the wave of electrification and intelligence

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