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碰撞速度和行人年龄对下肢严重损伤风险的影响

王丙雨1,2，聂 进3*，Dietmar OTTE4，王 方1,2，韩 勇1,2，彭 倩1,2   

  1. （1. 机械与汽车工程学院 厦门理工学院，厦门 361024，中国；2. 福建省客车及特种车辆研发协同创新中心，厦门 361024，中国；
    3. 中德诺浩汽车学院 娄底职业技术学院，娄底 417000，中国；4. 汉诺威医学院 事故调查科，汉诺威 30625，德国)
  • 收稿日期:2017-05-08 出版日期:2018-03-31 发布日期:2018-04-10
  • 通讯作者: 聂进(1984—)，男( 汉)，湖南，副教授。E-mail: nie0822@163.com。
  • 作者简介:王丙雨(1985—)，男( 汉)，山东，讲师。E-mail: wangyu1986w@sina.com。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金青年项目(51605407) ；福建省自然科学基金面上项目(2017J01652) ；福建省教育厅科研项目(JAT170427，JAT160365)。

Effects of impact speeds and pedestrian ages on lower extremity serious injury risk

WANG Bingyu1, 2, NIE Jin 3*, OTTE Dietmar4, WANG Fang1, 2, HAN Yong 1, 2, PENG Qian1, 2   

  1. (1. School of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen, 361024, China;
    2. Fujian Collaborative Innovation Center for R&D of Coach and Special Vehicle, Xiamen, 361024, China;
    3. Know-How Automotive School, Loudi Professional Technology College, Loudi 417000, China;
    4. Accident Research Unit, Medical University of Hannover, Hannover 30625, Germany)
  • Received:2017-05-08 Online:2018-03-31 Published:2018-04-10

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摘要：

       研究了真实交通事故中的行下肢损伤风险。应用了“德国深入事故调查研究”(GIDAS) 数据库中的带有行人下肢损伤的404 个案例，采用逻辑回归的方法，研究了汽车碰撞速度和行人年龄对行人下肢严重损伤(AIS2+) 以及胫骨/ 腓骨骨折风险的影响。结果显示：碰撞速度和行人年龄都是影响行人下肢AIS2+ 损伤和胫骨/ 腓骨骨折风险的显著性因素。在所用样本中，当碰撞速度为47.5 km/h 时，行人下肢AIS2+ 损伤风险为50%；当碰撞速度高达64.5 km/h 时，胫骨/ 腓骨骨折风险为50%。同时，行人下肢损伤风险随着年龄的增大而增加。

 

关键词: 汽车被动安全, 行人碰撞事故, 下肢AIS2+ 损伤, 胫/ 腓骨骨折, 逻辑回归模型, 碰撞速度

Abstract:

The lower extremity injury risks of pedestrian in real world accident were investigated. A subsample of 404 cases with pedestrian lower extremity injuries from the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS)  database were used to statistical analysis. Some logistic regression models of the risks for lower extremity
AIS2+ injuries and tibia/fibula fractures were developed by means of vehicle impact speeds and pedestrian ages. The results show that impact speed and age are the two statistically significant predictors for pedestrians sustaining lower extremity AIS2+injuries and tibia/fibula fractures. In the selected sample, the lower extremity AIS2+ injury risk is 50% probability at the impact speed of 47.5 km/h. The tibia/fibula fracture injury risks are 50% at the impact speed of 64.5 km/h. The risk of injury increases with the increasing of age.

Key words: automobile passive safety, pedestrian traffic accident, lower extremity AIS2+ injuries, tibia/fibula fractures, logistic regression model, impact speed, pedestrian age