中国氢能交通低成本用氢经济性分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8484.2026.01.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了分析氢燃料电池重卡的经济性及发展潜力，该文系统分析了电解水制氢的成本构成及影响因素。以49 t重卡为研究对象，对比氢燃料电池重卡、纯电重卡及柴油重卡的全生命周期成本（TCO），并预测未来成本下降趋势。结果表明：电网稳定性和电价波动对电解水制氢经济性影响显著。在政策补贴与技术进步驱动下，2024年氢燃料电池重卡成本为2.82元/km，接近柴油重卡的2.30元/km。当氢气价格降至30元/kg时，氢油平衡有望于2030年实现；降至25元/kg时，氢油平衡将于2025年实现。随着氢燃料电池重卡整车成本显著下降，在氢气价格进一步降低的前提下，其有望在未来实现与柴油重卡的成本平价。

关键词: 氢能交通, 电解制氢, 全生命周期成本（TCO）, 经济性, 成本预测

Abstract:

The cost components and influencing factors of hydrogen production via water electrolysis was systematically analyzed to evaluate the economic viability and development potential of hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks (HFC-HDTs). Focusing on 49-ton heavy-duty trucks, the total cost of ownership (TCO) of HFC-HDTs, battery electric trucks, and diesel trucks was compared, while the predicting future cost reduction trends was predicted. The results indicate that grid stability and electricity price fluctuations significantly affect the economics of electrolytic hydrogen production. Driven by policy subsidies and technological advancements, the cost of HFC-HDTs in 2024 is 2.82 CNY/km, approaching the 2.30 CNY/km of diesel trucks. Furthermore, cost parity between hydrogen and diesel is expected to be achieved by 2030 if the hydrogen price drops to 30 CNY/kg, and by 2025 if the price falls to 25 CNY/kg. Consequently, with the significant reduction in vehicle manufacturing costs, HFC-HDTs are poised to achieve cost competitiveness against diesel trucks in the future, provided that hydrogen prices decrease further.

Key words: hydrogen-powered transportation, electrolytic hydrogen production, total cost of ownership (TCO), economic feasibility, cost forecasting

中图分类号:

TM911

赵珈艺, 胡文宇, 廖孟柯, 韩天倚, 周红莲, 李忠政. 中国氢能交通低成本用氢经济性分析[J]. 汽车安全与节能学报, 2026, 17(1): 114-121.

ZHAO Jiayi, HU Wenyu, LIAO Mengke, HAN Tianyi, ZHOU Honglian, LI Zhongzheng. Economic feasibility analysis on low-cost hydrogen utilization in China's hydrogen-powered transportation[J]. Journal of Automotive Safety and Energy, 2026, 17(1): 114-121.

图/表 9

参考文献 16

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参数	PEM电解槽	ALK电解槽
每千克H₂能耗/ (kWh · kg^-1)	55~65	55~65
制氢理论能耗/ (kWh · kg^-1)	39.4	39.4
电解槽规模/MW	1~20	5~100
电解槽效率/ %	60~70	65~75
电解槽成本/(元 · kW^-1)	6 000~12 000	3 000~5 000
基础设施成本/(元 · kW^-1)	800~2 500	500~2 000
人工费用/(万元 · 年^-1)	50~200	50~150

参数	PEM电解槽	ALK电解槽
每千克H₂能耗/ (kWh · kg^-1)	55~65	55~65
制氢理论能耗/ (kWh · kg^-1)	39.4	39.4
电解槽规模/MW	1~20	5~100
电解槽效率/ %	60~70	65~75
电解槽成本/(元 · kW^-1)	6 000~12 000	3 000~5 000
基础设施成本/(元 · kW^-1)	800~2 500	500~2 000
人工费用/(万元 · 年^-1)	50~200	50~150

分类	指标	柴油重卡		纯电重卡		燃料电池重卡
分类	指标	2024	2024	2025	2030	2024	2025	2030
动力需求与效率	总轴重/t	49	49	49	49	49	49	49
	续航里程/km	500	500	500	500	500	500	500
	车辆驱动能量需求/kWh	600	600	600	600	600	600	600
	传动系统效率/ %	82.3	83.6	85.0	90.0	82.3	85.0	90.0
	动力源效率/ %	40.0	91.0	92.0	95.0	50.0	55.0	60.0
	主动力源额定功率/kW	460	220	220	220	180	240	240
能耗与燃料需求	实际驱动能量消耗/kWh	1 822.6	-	783.2	767.3	701.8	-	1 357.5
	燃料需求量/kg	153.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	40.4	38.2	33.1
	百千米燃料消耗/ (kWh · kg^-1)	30.7	162.0	153.5	140.4	8.2	7.6	6.6
	燃料低热值/ (kJ · kg^-1)	42 700	-	-	-	120 900	120 900	120 900
成本构成	燃料价格/ (元 · kg^-1)或[元 · (kWh)^-1]	7.5	1.0	1.0	1.0	25 (无补贴)	40 (补贴后)	40 (不补贴)
	动力系统寿命/ (10⁴ km)	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
	储能价格/[元 · (kWh)^-1]或(元 · kg^-1)	-	800	750	500	2 500	2 000	1 000
	主动力源单价/[元 · (kWh)^-1]	-	-	-	-	4 000	1 000	500
	动力电池系统购置成本/万元	0.0	48.0	45.0	30.0	15.0	10.0	7.5
	储氢系统成本/万元	0	0	0	0	20	7.6	3.3
	主动力源购置成本/万元	12	0	0	0	60	24	12
	传动驱动系统购置成本/万元	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
C_TCO	能源成本/万元	230.6	156.1	153.5	140.4	282.2	305.7	264.7
C_TCO	维护成本/万元	20	20	20	20	20	20	20

分类	指标	柴油重卡		纯电重卡		燃料电池重卡
分类	指标	2024	2024	2025	2030	2024	2025	2030
动力需求与效率	总轴重/t	49	49	49	49	49	49	49
	续航里程/km	500	500	500	500	500	500	500
	车辆驱动能量需求/kWh	600	600	600	600	600	600	600
	传动系统效率/ %	82.3	83.6	85.0	90.0	82.3	85.0	90.0
	动力源效率/ %	40.0	91.0	92.0	95.0	50.0	55.0	60.0
	主动力源额定功率/kW	460	220	220	220	180	240	240
能耗与燃料需求	实际驱动能量消耗/kWh	1 822.6	-	783.2	767.3	701.8	-	1 357.5
	燃料需求量/kg	153.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	40.4	38.2	33.1
	百千米燃料消耗/ (kWh · kg^-1)	30.7	162.0	153.5	140.4	8.2	7.6	6.6
	燃料低热值/ (kJ · kg^-1)	42 700	-	-	-	120 900	120 900	120 900
成本构成	燃料价格/ (元 · kg^-1)或[元 · (kWh)^-1]	7.5	1.0	1.0	1.0	25 (无补贴)	40 (补贴后)	40 (不补贴)
	动力系统寿命/ (10⁴ km)	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
	储能价格/[元 · (kWh)^-1]或(元 · kg^-1)	-	800	750	500	2 500	2 000	1 000
	主动力源单价/[元 · (kWh)^-1]	-	-	-	-	4 000	1 000	500
	动力电池系统购置成本/万元	0.0	48.0	45.0	30.0	15.0	10.0	7.5
	储氢系统成本/万元	0	0	0	0	20	7.6	3.3
	主动力源购置成本/万元	12	0	0	0	60	24	12
	传动驱动系统购置成本/万元	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
C_TCO	能源成本/万元	230.6	156.1	153.5	140.4	282.2	305.7	264.7
C_TCO	维护成本/万元	20	20	20	20	20	20	20

动力	时间	H₂价格/(元 · kg^-1)	C_TCO/万元	C_TCO-km/(元 · km^-1)
柴油	2024	/	230.6 ^[8]	2.30
纯电	2024	/	156.1 ^[15]	1.56
	2025	/	153.5	1.53
	2030	/	140.4	1.40
燃料电池	2024	25(无补贴)	282.2	2.82
	2025	40(无补贴)	305.7	3.05
	2030	40(无补贴)	264.7	2.64