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汽车安全与节能学报

汽车安全与节能学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 6 ›› Issue (03): 259-264.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-8484.2015.03.009

• 汽车节能与环保 • 上一篇    下一篇

北京城市客运能源消耗与环境排放的情景预测

高小玲，任昭军   

  1. 上海海洋大学 经济管理学院，上海 201306，中国
  • 收稿日期:2014-12-14 出版日期:2015-09-25 发布日期:2015-10-12
  • 作者简介:第一作者 / First author ： 高小玲（1978 －），女（汉），湖南，副教授。E-mail: xlgao@shou.edu.cn 第二作者 / Second author ： 任昭军，硕士研究生。E-mail: zjren2015@foxmail.com
  • 基金资助:

    教育部人文社会科学规划项目 (13YJA630028) ；上海市教育委员会科研创新重点项目(13ZS099) .

Scenario prediction of the energy consumption and the environmental emissions of Beijing urban passenger transport

GAO Xiaoling, REN Zhaojun   

  1. College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai201306, China
  • Received:2014-12-14 Online:2015-09-25 Published:2015-10-12

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摘要：

为预测未来城市客运交通能源消耗与环境排放情况，以瑞典、美国开发的模型“长期能源
替代规划”(LEAP) 为工具，在北京市现有城市交通规划及政策框架内，设置了4 种情景：“基准情
景”(BAU)、“发展公共交通情景”、“新能源汽车推广情景”、“最佳情景”(P&N），以2012 年为基准期，
以2015—2030 年为预测期，分析能源消耗及污染气体（CO2、CO、CH4、N2O、NOX、SO2）排放情景。
结果显示：发展公共交通的节能效果优于推广新能源汽车，后者的SO2 减排效果更显著；与基准情
景相比，2030 年最佳情景可节能45.20%，排放量为2012 年的47.05%。因此，该方案减排效果突出，
其中SO2 的减排效果最佳。

关键词: 城市客运交通, 能源需求, 环境排放, 情景分析, 长期能源替代规划（LEAP）模型

Abstract:

The situation of energy consumption and environmental emissions of CO2, CO, CH4, N2O, NOX,
and SO2 was analyzed for the base year 2012 and extrapolated till 2030 for the future predictions within the
framework of the existing urban transport planning and policy in Beijing. Using a computer software called Long-
Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model, USA, established four scenarios of the "Business
As Usual (BAU)", the "Public Transport", the "New Energy Vehicle", and the "Public transport and New energy
vehicle" (P&N). The results of scenario analysis show that with respect to energy saving, the public transport
scenario conducts better than the new energy vehicles scenario, however, the new energy vehicle scenario
performs better than the public transport scenario with respect to the reduction of SO2 emission. Scenario 4
will success to save 45.20% of energy consumption by 2030 compare to BAU, and only emission 47.05% of the
emissions in 2012, so, it has an excellent potential of environmental emissions reduction, especially for SO2 emission.

Key words: urban passenger transport, energy consumption, environmental emissions, scenario analysis, Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model