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汽车安全与节能学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (2): 165-172.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-8484.2023.02.003

• 汽车安全 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于DEMATEL/ISM集成的重大护栏交通事故的核心风险因素

程宇峰1,2(), 邹铁方2,*(), 李平凡3   

  1. 1.中国标准化研究院 长三角(嘉兴)分院, 嘉兴 314000, 中国
    2.长沙理工大学 汽车与机械工程学院, 长沙 410114, 中国
    3.公安部 交通管理科学研究所, 无锡 214151, 中国
  • 收稿日期:2022-09-07 修回日期:2022-11-08 出版日期:2023-04-30 发布日期:2023-04-27
  • 通讯作者: 邹铁方
  • 作者简介:*邹铁方,教授。E-mail:tiefang@163.com
    程宇峰(1994—),男(汉),江西,硕士研究生。E-mail: 2360116903@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(51775056)

Core risk factors of major guardrail-type traffic accidents based on an integrated DEMATEL/ISM

CHENG Yufeng1,2(), ZOU Tiefang2,*(), LI Pingfan3   

  1. 1. Yangtze Delta Region Branch of China National Institute of Standardization, Jiaxing 314000, China
    2. School of Automotive and Mechanical Engineering, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114, China
    3. Traffic Management Research Institute, Ministry of Public Security, Wuxi 214151, China
  • Received:2022-09-07 Revised:2022-11-08 Online:2023-04-30 Published:2023-04-27
  • Contact: ZOU Tiefang

摘要:

为研究重特大护栏类交通事故(MGTA)的形成致因,依据人、车、路、环、管5类事故特征进行深度数据挖掘,构建MGTA核心风险因素体系。基于DEMATEL (决策试验与评价实验室) 分析法与ISM (解释结构模型) 法的集成分析,确定了事故关键核心风险因素及因素间的因果关系、作用路径和层级结构。结果表明:MGTA形成是风险因素间相互耦合作用的结果,驾驶人因素和管理因素是事故预防的重要根源;安全意识薄弱、违反道路规则行驶、操作不当、超速行驶、驾驶人监管疏漏和车辆监管疏漏是影响事故形成的关键核心风险因素,其中驾驶人监管疏漏和车辆监管疏漏为关键根源因素,具有高驱动性。

关键词: 公路交通安全, 交通事故, 重特大护栏类交通事故(MGTA), 风险因素, 决策试验与评价实验室分析(DEMATEL)法, 解释结构模型法(ISM)

Abstract:

A core risk factor system of major guardrail-type traffic accidents (MGTA) was constructed by using deeply data mining (DM) to investigated the formation causes of the MGTA, according to the characteristics of five types of accidents: men, vehicles, roads, environments and managements. The key core risk factors and their causal relationships, action paths and hierarchical structures were determined based on the integrated analysis of the DEMATEL (decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory) method and the Interpretive Structural Model (ISM). The results show that the MGTA formation is the result of the coupling between the risk factors; and the driver factors and management factors are the important source of accident prevention. Weak security awareness, driving against road rules, improper operation, speeding, driver supervision omissions and vehicle supervision omissions are the key core risk factors affecting the accident formation, among them, driver supervision omission and vehicle supervision omission are the key root causes, which have high driving force.

Key words: road traffic safety, traffic accidents, major guardrail-type traffic accidents (MGTA), risk factors, decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method, interpretative structural model (ISM)

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