基于质保数据的汽车可靠性评估及车企运营决策系统

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8484.2022.02.004

汽车安全与节能学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (2): 250-258.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-8484.2022.02.004

基于质保数据的汽车可靠性评估及车企运营决策系统

庞欢(), 石东阳(), 王道成, 刘敬一

长安大学汽车学院,710064,中国

收稿日期:2021-07-22 修回日期:2022-02-16 出版日期:2022-06-30 发布日期:2022-07-01
作者简介:庞欢（1987—）,男（汉）,陕西,讲师。E-mail： panghuan@chd.edu.cn。
石东阳（1998—）,男（汉）,山西,硕士研究生。E-mail: dongyang061@163.com。
基金资助:
中央高校基本科研基金(300102222114)

Automobile reliability evaluation and automobile-enterprise operational decision system based on warranty data

PANG Huan(), SHI Dongyang(), WANG Daocheng, LIU Jingyi

School of Automobile, Chang’an University, 710064, China

Received:2021-07-22 Revised:2022-02-16 Online:2022-06-30 Published:2022-07-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从汽车质保数据出发,考虑用户实际需求,研发了一种支撑汽车可靠性评估及车企运营决策的系统。搭建了具有多任务管理和多维度分析功能的系统框架;设计了用于支撑数据分析挖掘的外部数据库,该系统具备数据自动清洗、故障统计分析、可靠性评估、科学决策分析和数据可视化等功能。结合3款实际车型的二维质保数据,应用本系统进行了汽车故障统计分析和可靠性评估,并预测了下个季度该车企的维修备件需求。结果表明：在车企维修备件预测中,预测值与实际值的相对误差小于5%。因此,该系统可以支撑车企的产品评估和运营决策。

关键词: 汽车企业, 可靠性评估, 企业运营决策, 汽车质保数据, 系统设计

Abstract:

A system was developed to support automobile reliability-evaluation and automobile-enterprise operation-decision based on the automobile warranty data, considering customer’s actual needs. The system framework was established with functions of multi-task management and multi-dimensional analysis; External databases were designed to support data analysis and mining. The system has functions such as automatic data cleaning, failure statistical analysis, reliability evaluation, scientific decision making and data visualization. Combining the actual two-dimensional warranty data from 3 vehicle types, the system was applied to carry out fault statistical analysis, reliability evaluation, and to predict the company’s demand of maintenance spare parts in the next quarter. The results show that the relative error between the predicted value and the actual value is less than 5% when predicting spare parts of automobile enterprise in the next quarter. Therefore, the system can support the product evaluation and automobile-enterprise operational-decision.

Key words: automobile enterprises, reliability evaluation, enterprise operational decision, automobile warranty data, system design

中图分类号:

TB114.3

庞欢, 石东阳, 王道成, 刘敬一. 基于质保数据的汽车可靠性评估及车企运营决策系统[J]. 汽车安全与节能学报, 2022, 13(2): 250-258.

PANG Huan, SHI Dongyang, WANG Daocheng, LIU Jingyi. Automobile reliability evaluation and automobile-enterprise operational decision system based on warranty data[J]. Journal of Automotive Safety and Energy, 2022, 13(2): 250-258.

图/表 13

图1 系统整体框架结构

图2 统计分析功能原理

图3 数据后处理原理

图4 整体操作界面

图5 系统数据流及数据库

图6 BOM库数据结构示意图

图7 销量库数据结构示意图

图8 月平均行驶里程频率分布图

图9 不同质保期下在保率

图10 维修备件预测原理

图11 汽车故障多维度统计图

图12 汽车可靠性评估结果对比图

备件名称	预测年月	维修备件数/个			相对误差/%
备件名称	预测年月	预测值	实际值	误差	单月	季度
悬架后上横臂	2019-08	101	99	+2	+2.02	-2.40
	2019-09	93	96	-3	-3.13
	2019-10	91	97	-6	-6.18
制动盘	2019-08	48	46	+2	+4.35	-2.99
	2019-09	42	43	-1	-2.33
	2019-10	40	45	-5	-11.1

表1 维修备件预测精度对比

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基于质保数据的汽车可靠性评估及车企运营决策系统

Automobile reliability evaluation and automobile-enterprise operational decision system based on warranty data

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